CCMC CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2016-10-09T02:00:00-CME-001)

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2016 Oct 10 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low.  The largest flare of the period was a B5
flare at 09/1903 UTC from Region 2598 (N14W38, Cai/beta).  Slight growth
was observed in the intermediate spots of Region 2598.  Slight decay was
observed in the trailing spots of Region 2600 (N13E33, Cso/beta). 
Region 2599 (S15W10, Cko/beta) was relatively stable.

WSA-ENLIL analysis of the partial halo CME, first observed in
coronagraph imagery at approximately 09/0200 UTC, indicated an arrival
mid to late on 13 Sep.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for
C-class flares over the next three days (10-12 Oct).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 3,515 pfu at 09/1355 UTC.  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
was steady at background levels throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate
to high levels over the next three days (10-12 Oct).  The greater than
10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout
the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at background levels through the period with
solar wind speeds between 367 km/s and 422 km/s.  Density increased from
8 p/cc to 12 p/cc.  Total field was between 2-6 nT while the Bz
component was mostly south reaching a maximum of -5 nT.  Phi angle was
oriented in a positive (away) sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at background levels
throughout the forecast period (10-12 Oct).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet under a nominal solar wind regime.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day one (10 Oct) with
quiet to unsettled conditions on days two and three (11-12 Oct).


Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2016 Oct 11 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 11-Oct 13 2016 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 11-Oct 13 2016

            Oct 11     Oct 12     Oct 13
00-03UT        1          2          2     
03-06UT        1          3          2     
06-09UT        1          2          2     
09-12UT        1          2          2     
12-15UT        1          1          2     
15-18UT        1          1          4     
18-21UT        2          2          4     
21-00UT        2          2          5 (G1)

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